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Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow under COVID-19
Jun 20,2022
Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow under COVID-19


Since the world health organization (WHO) in January 2020, named the new coronavirus COVID-19, with lightning speed it spread all over the world, sparked a wave of resistance to disease around the world, from calling for wear and hood, restrict people travel, to the popularization of vaccine research and development, the full-population injection, the life of people from disruptions to now gradually returned to normal.The COVID-19 variant that is still circulating is the Omicron variant of the novel coronavirus strain reported from southern Africa and named by the World Health Organization in November 2021.Omicron caused record peaks of cases in many places, but is now on a downward trend.In most places, the worst of the Omicron wave has passed, and countries such as Australia, the UK and the US have relaxed public health measures, with "living with COVID-19" becoming the dominant form of policy. By contrast, some places, such as China, continue to tighten restrictions, insisting on a "dynamic clearance to zero".


In a context that is so relevant to all of us, we want to know how dangerous is Omicron? Do vaccinations protect us effectively enough? What is the world doing in this silent war, and what are the results? Of course, what we want to know the most is whether China will follow the lead of other countries and when it will end its policy of dynamic zero-out. And when it will really end.




  1. The case fatality rate of Omicron decreased but the transmissibility of Omicron increased greatly



An academic study published in the Lancet on 2 April summed up more than 1.5 million cases of COVID-19 in the UK between 29 November 2021 and 9 January 2022, with 1 million cases of Omicron and 450,000 cases of Delta. It is the largest study to date comparing the pathogenicity of Omicron and Delta. The study found a 59 percent lower risk of hospitalization and a 69 percent lower risk of death in Omicron cases compared to Delta.



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However, studies on the specific case fatality rate (number of deaths/number of confirmed cases) of Omicron vary widely. There are many factors that affect the case fatality rate of Omicron. The mortality rate of the elderly and the young can differ by tens or even hundreds of times between three doses of vaccine and those who have not been vaccinated, which makes it impossible to use a single number to represent the case fatality rate of Omicron.

There are also two concepts that need to be clarified first: Case Fatality Rate and Mortality Rate.The fatality rate is the proportion of people who die from a particular disease, and the mortality rate is the proportion of people who die from a particular disease in a population.


Understanding the difference between the two concepts, we can see that even after Omicron became the dominant virus in December 2021, the average number of deaths per day in the United States was even higher than during the previous Delta epidemic, even though the case fatality rate dropped significantly (reflecting a decline in virality).(Reflecting the fact that the virus may have caused more actual deaths after considering the lower mortality rate and higher infectivity, see the second peak in the chart below)



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That's because even though the case fatality rate is close, the biggest difference between Omicron and Delta or influenza viruses is actually that the omicron virus is very transmissible, so even if the case fatality rate is low, more people die in absolute terms because of the large base of infection. According to the latest data from the UK Health and Safety Agency (UKHSA), the omicron BA.2 variant spread 75 per cent faster than the BA.1 variant. According to Zhang, the basic infectious index R0 of BA.2 could reach 8, while former WHO scientist Adrian Esterman estimated that the R0 of BA.2 is 12, higher than almost all infectious diseases found in humans today, while the R0 of the original COVID-19 was only 2.5.The newly discovered omicron XE variant is even more transmissible than ba.2.



2. Vaccine (domestic inactivated vaccine and mRNA vaccine) has a significant protective effect on severe illness and mortality



The fact that the fatality rate has dropped to a very low level assumes widespread vaccination.It is clear from US and Swiss statistics that vaccination significantly reduces mortality across all time dimensions, with peak weekly deaths of 23.13 per 100,000 unvaccinated people in the US (full scale rather than confirmed cases) compared with 1.09 for three doses. That's a 21-fold difference. Data from Switzerland showed a peak of 16.45 deaths per 100,000 people per week, compared with 0.37 for three doses, a 44-fold difference. Therefore, only when vaccination is widely carried out and the majority of people are protected by vaccines can we say that the fatality rate of the novel coronavirus has reached the level of the influenza virus, and we can lay the foundation for gradually liberalizing the policy.


Sinovac's inactivated vaccine and Fosun-Bionteck's mRNA vaccine, forbiitai (equivalent to Pfizer-Bionteck), both significantly prevented severe illness and mortality, according to a study released by the University of Hong Kong school of Medicine on March 22.Two doses of Sinovax vaccine were 91.7% effective in preventing severe disease (forbutidine 95.2%) and 94% effective in preventing death (Forbutidine 96.4%) in people under 60 years of age.Two doses of KEXing showed little protection for people over 60 years old, but after three doses of kexing (enhanced vaccination), the effectiveness of kexing was significantly enhanced, and the effectiveness of kexing was 97.9% (forbitide 98%) and 98.3% (forbitide 98.1%), respectively.At the same time, however, we also found that the protection of the vaccine against mild disease was relatively low. Two doses of Sinovax vaccine only reduced the risk of mild infection by 17.9% (forbicide 31%), and three doses of Sinovax vaccine only reduced the protection against mild disease by 42.3% (Forbicide 71.5%).




3. Public health policies can be effective in slowing the spread of the virus, as evidenced by the treatment of COVID-19 in other parts of the world



Despite the alarming spread of the virus, the steepness of the curve varies widely among countries, with countries with stricter quarantine policies (such as Germany, Japan and Singapore) showing a smoother curve, suggesting that public health policies can artificially slow the spread of the virus.

 

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The public health policies of Germany, Japan and Singapore all include: wearing a mask in public places, limiting the number of people attending parties, showing proof of vaccination when entering or leaving public places, and requiring isolation for diagnosis and close contact.In addition, Germany and Japan also have certain restrictions on the opening of offline physical stores. Germany has closed nightclubs and some stores since the end of 2021, while Japan requires restaurants to close after 8 or 9 p.m.These policies, as well as the atmosphere of social tension and public discipline, have been effective in slowing the spread of the virus.


Since the end of February 2022, when policies were relaxed in many European countries, we have seen a resurgence of new cases in all countries, with Germany and Austria both exceeding their previous peaks.Britain, France, Ireland, the Netherlands and several Northern European countries have taken steps to end or ease restrictions on COVID-19.In February England ended almost all domestic restrictions. Public Spaces do not need to be covered, green passes are no longer required to enter events or other public Spaces, and working from home has been abolished.The regional head of the World Health Organization warned on March 22 that parts of Europe had been "too abrupt" in reversing epideme-related policies, leading to a surge in infections and deaths.Since then, some countries have tightened their quarantine policies. Austria, for example, on March 23, two weeks after lifting the mandatory wearing of masks in closed public places, re-required the wearing of FFP2 (N95 equivalent level) masks.




4. While some industries are shrinking due to the impact of COVID-19 in China, others are emerging




The direct impact of COVID-19 on the economy is mainly concentrated in transportation, tourism, catering, hotels, film and television entertainment, retail, logistics and other industries, mostly in the service sector, which is often referred to as the tertiary industry.Then, in the crisis, there is a crisis and organic, among which the following industries ushered in the dawn of new: 



a. Medical industry



Medical products include medical supplies such as cover, medical waste disposal, medical biology, Internet medical treatment, etc.Take again cover for example: Behind the shortage of medical again cover and other anti-epidemic materials is the shortage of again cover machine, ear belt spot welding machine and other production equipment, melt-blown cloth, non-woven fabric, bridge of the nose and other raw materials.Melt-blown cloth is known as the "heart" of the cover. One ton of melt-blown cloth can produce 1 million medical and surgical covers or more than 500,000 N95 level covers.1 ton of polypropylene can produce 250 thousand again cover.Melt-blown fabrics and other non-woven fabrics are made from polypropylene, a chemical material mainly supplied by petrochina and Sinopec, with private enterprises accounting for about 30%.The outbreak of the epidemic caused a blowout in China's demand. As of February 10, 2020, 76% of enterprises had resumed work, and the production capacity was about 16 million.Under normal circumstances, China's daily cover capacity of 20 million, medical surgery and cover up to 2.2 million, N95 cover up to 600,000.China has 1.4 billion people, and if the daily demand is calculated according to the ordinary people to cover two days, the daily demand is 700 million. Considering the actual situation and folding 50%, the daily demand is 350 million. Even if the resumption rate reaches 100% and the daily production capacity reaches the maximum 20 million, the shortage is still huge.Not only China but also the world is facing a shortage of supplies.Because the demand for defensive materials such as covers is a sudden demand, it is difficult for any one country's capacity to support such a large demand.In the face of the pneumonia epidemic, all parts of China are working day and night to increase production.In the wake of the pandemic, a sharp drop in demand is inevitable.However, we can see from several major epidemic incidents that when the public's awareness is improved, the mask will gradually change from a protective device to a daily commodity, and it is very likely that the mask will be included in the national strategic material.Therefore, in the long run, cover industry is a healthy sunrise industry.Take Internet medical treatment for example: At present, China's Internet medical industry is still in the early stage of development in China, with large room for improvement and sufficient demand potential.According to data from the Health Commission, the proportion of medical IT in China is showing a trend of steady increase, from 0.52% in 2009 to 0.85% in 2018.However, advanced countries such as the United States account for 3 to 5 percent of medical IT, and tertiary hospitals in advanced regions such as the east Coast of Korea account for 1.5 to 2 percent.Compared with both developed countries and more developed regions in China, the national medical IT ratio of 0.85% is relatively low.IT can be seen that China's medical IT investment still has great room for improvement, which can drive the development of the industry.




Proportion of IT Spending in Healthcare Sector in Total Health Expenditure in Health Institutions (unit: %), 2009-2018


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b.Office software industry



Against the backdrop of COVID-19 prevention and control, local governments have responded positively to the Policy of The State Council by issuing notices to work from home.At a meeting of the leading group of the CPC Central Committee on the response to the novel coronavirus outbreak, the CPC Central Committee proposed measures to support online office work, which will enable employees to carry out production operations when they are not at their posts, help reduce personnel flow and contact, and control the epidemic.


At present, the functions of cloud collaborative office software on the market can be divided into four categories, including communication, collaboration, transmission and management.For cloud office software with open platforms such as Dingding and Huawei WeLink, it can also provide customized access services, software + hardware collaboration and other services.


For ordinary office workers, telecommuting without geographical space limitation will become a rigid demand of most enterprises, and online office software that can realize office collaboration will be widely used in the near future.Once this way of working has become a corporate office habit, it will often continue, irreversible transfer.At present, China's basic office software market scale of about 10 billion yuan, is expected to reach about 14.9 billion yuan in 2023.



    

  Market Size of Basic Office Software in China from 2017-2023 (unit: 100 million Yuan, %)

 

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c. Fresh e-commerce industry



In recent years, the e-commerce industry giants actively layout, the rapid development of fresh e-commerce, its penetration rate increased from 0.36% in 2013 to 7.63% in 2020. In 2020 fresh e-commerce annual average daily active number are more than 8 million, in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 8.397 million, compared with the fourth quarter of 2019 year-on-year growth of 25.97%.In the whole year of 2020, the monthly live number of fresh e-commerce is more than 40 million.Repeated outbreaks of the epidemic have led to a surge in demand for fresh e-commerce industry. At present, participants in the fresh e-commerce industry can be divided into three categories: e-commerce supermarket, vertical e-commerce, O2O and industrial e-commerce.Representative enterprises of e-commerce supermarkets include JINGdong Supermarket, Tmall, Suning Tesco supermarket, Yihaodian, Yonghui Supermarket, JINGdong, Tmall, Pinduoduo and so on.The representative of vertical e-commerce enterprises have easy fruit fresh, original life, I buy network, daily fresh, orchard every day, COfco I buy network.O2O representative enterprises include Ding Dong Mai CAI, CHILDLIFE, 7FRESH, Meituan Mai CAI, Duoduo Dmall, Su Xiansheng, Xiao Xiang Xiansheng, Hema Xiansheng, etc.The representative enterprises of industrial e-commerce are vegetables, chain agriculture, a mu of farmland, fresh sea, pattern vegetable market, splendid fresh, micro agriculture, excellent with good products, etc.



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During the epidemic, orders of almost all fresh e-commerce platforms have increased by more than several times, and insufficient transport capacity has become a common problem faced by fresh e-commerce during this period.To increase capacity, companies will have to hire more and pay more.This will lead to increasing operating costs. Therefore, reducing costs and improving profits become the key to the survival of fresh electricity suppliers.It is expected that after the epidemic, the original industry market pattern will accelerate brand shuffling, at the same time, fresh electricity market penetration will further rise.



d. Internet + education industry



Offline education institutions have suspended operations and primary and secondary schools across the country have postponed the opening of their schools during the epidemic.Offline education institutions and primary and secondary schools have not been able to switch to online teaching, and online education is enjoying a revival.According to the 44th Statistical Report on Internet Development in China released by China Internet Network Information Center, as of June 2019, the number of online education users in China reached 232 million, an increase of 31.22 million compared with the end of 2018, accounting for 27.20% of the total Internet users.


 

                          Size of Online Education Users in China 16-2020 (Unit: 100 million, %)


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5. China under the Epidemic



In the past two years, China has gone through a lot. From the panic and confusion when the wuhan epidemic broke out in 2020, to the remarkable success of epidemic prevention in the second half of 2020 and 2021, and to the gradual opening up of the world and the gradual return of economic life in 2022, We are still persevering in the way of "dynamic zero clearance".In will be coronavirus pandemic two years, through strict implementation of "dynamic reset" policy, China is not only to control the death toll from a very low level (compared with the global more than 6 million deaths, China has only 4600 deaths), became the first country recover from disease, in 2021 achieved a record trade surplus, We also successfully hosted the Winter Olympics, which shows the superiority of China's previous measures.


For will be coronavirus, natural variation of the virus to the lethality of the virus itself falling, and verified the effectiveness of the vaccine and specific, for external conditions, the virus evolved into sex is stronger and more secretive Mr Mick Dijon virus epidemic prevention policy in China also brings greater challenges, to further improve both the scope and cost of epidemic prevention.Sporadic local outbreaks starting in 2022 show that continuing the policy of "dynamic zero" will cost us more than ever.Shanghai, for example, has closed its entire population at home for the first time in two years since the outbreak. The quarantine policy is even stricter than it was in early 2020, yet it still sees tens of thousands of confirmed cases every day.


At present, most countries have gradually relaxed the epidemic control.China as one of the important economies, deeply involved in international trade, after the outbreak of the rest of the world gradually relaxing control, China can't be with the world economic and social isolation, this will lead to either China never end epidemic status, or long-term reset policy will make China and the rest of the world into the long-term development model are applicable.Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed a decline in major industrial and service sectors in April, presumably due to the impact of COVID-19 policies.Considering various factors, the cost of continuing to implement the "dynamic zero clearance" policy is getting bigger and bigger, so we have to start thinking about the risks and benefits of continuing to implement the "dynamic zero clearance" policy.


"Gradually opening up" to the world is the general trend, but the necessary premise is that China needs to further improve the overall vaccination rate, especially for the elderly vaccination rate, as well as medical resources and policy preparation.We consider that China may enter a transition period of gradual liberalization in 2023. During this period, certain industries may suffer some impact, but with various stronger policies to stabilize the economy and employment, we will eventually emerge from the haze of COVID-19.



References:

[1] Comparativeanalysis of the risks of hospitalisation and death associated with SARS - CoV - 2 omicron (b. 1.1.529) and Variants in England: A Cohort Study -The Lancet

[2]Clinical outcomes among patients infected with Omicron (B.1.1.529) SARS-COV-2 Variant in Southern California

[3] https://www.ft.com/content/e26c93a0-90e7-4dec-a796-3e25e94bc59b

[4]Life Expectancy in the U.S.Declined a Year and Half in 2020 (cdc.gov)

[5]Excess mortality during thecoronavirus pandemic - Ourworldindata

[6]How do death rates from COVID-19differ between people who are vaccinated and those who are not? - Our World inData

[7] Risk forCOVID-19 Infection, Hospitalization, and Death By Age Group | CDC

[8] Science: Big bang!The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines is declining sharply

[9] Less than 40% of people over 60 years old in China have been vaccinated.

[10] Analysis of epidemic data in the world and its implications for China

[11] New Opportunities under COVID-19 (zztongyun.com)

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